【论文信息】

Jiang M Y, Peng J F*(通讯作者).Nonlinear ecological effects of agricultural industrial agglomeration under climate conditions: evidence from 279 prefecture-level cities in China[J]. International Review of Economics and Finance (SSCI JCR Q1，中科院SSCI二区，ABS二星期刊), 2026, 112:105825. DOI:10.1016/j.iref.2026.105825.

【作者信息】

第一作者：蒋梦雨，彭建仿教授指导的2024级博士研究生，研究方向：农村经济管理；

通讯作者：彭建仿，博士、教授、博士生导师，研究方向：营销渠道与服务供应链、农产品营销、品牌营销。

【论文摘要】

Against the backdrop of intensifying climate risks and the green transformation of agriculture, optimizing the spatial distribution of agricultural industries to improve agricultural ecological efficiency (AEL) has become a key issue for sustainable agricultural development. Using panel data from 279 prefecture-level cities in China over the period 2012–2022, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model, supplemented by analyses of potential transmission channels, climate thresholds, and spatial associations using a spatial Durbin model, to examine the nonlinear relationship between agricultural industrial agglomeration (AID) and AEL, potential transmission channels, variations across climate conditions, and spatial associations. The baseline estimates provide marginal evidence consistent with an inverted U-shaped association between AID and AEL, with the pattern primarily characterized by a positive association that weakens as agglomeration intensifies. Significant nonlinear associations are also observed between AID and both green agricultural enterprises and agricultural cooperatives, providing preliminary correlational evidence for technological transmission and organizational coordination as two potential transmission channels. Further analysis reveals marked differences in the relationship between AID and AEL across levels of agricultural innovation, government support, energy consumption, urbanization, and agricultural production functions. Regarding climate conditions, the form of the relationship varies across precipitation conditions and frequencies of extreme temperature events. Under moderate precipitation conditions, the relationship exhibits a nonlinear pattern consistent with an inverted U-shaped form, while corresponding nonlinear characteristics are also observed when extreme temperature events are more frequent. The spatial analysis indicates a certain degree of cross-regional spatial association between AID and AEL in other regions.