【论文信息】

Xu L, Du X, Tang Q*(通讯作者). Certainty in uncertainty: Assessing the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the green transformation of manufacturing firms in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production(中科院SCI一区TOP期刊，重庆工商大学A1期刊), 2025, 522: 146280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.146280.

【作者信息】

第一作者：徐 磊，博士、教授、博士生导师，研究方向：创新管理、技术经济及管理；

第二作者：杜炫宇，博士研究生，研究方向：企业战略；

通讯作者：唐秋雨，博士研究生，研究方向：国际贸易、数字经济。

【基金支持】

国家社会科学基金资助项目(21XJY001)等。

【论文摘要】

Global climate governance has led to frequent climate policy revisions, resulting in Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU). Despite this, policies generally follow a long-term trend of tightening. In this context, Green Transformation (GT) has become a strategic tool for firms to mitigate risks and secure competitive advantages. Using machine learning techniques to measure corporate GT and media sentiment, this study analyzes data from Chinese A-share listed companies between 2008 and 2022. Drawing on growth options theory, we empirically examine the impact of CPU on the GT of manufacturing firms. Results show that increased CPU significantly accelerates the GT process. This effect is mainly driven by enhanced green innovation and upgraded green governance. Additionally, media coverage of environmental issues and shifts in sentiment strengthen external governance mechanisms. Specifically, both positive and negative environmental news coverage significantly enhance the positive impact of CPU on corporate GT, while positive shifts in sentiment produce the opposite effect. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that CPU's impact is more pronounced in small private firms, heavily polluting industries, firms with lower executive environmental awareness, and those with higher perceived uncertainty. This study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the dynamic relationship between CPU and GT, offering insights for policymakers aiming to balance climate policy with corporate green strategies.