【论文信息】

Chen W, Song Z*(通讯作者), Xie Y. Why incentive-regulatory policy synergy underperforms in driving energy transition: Evidence from China[J]. Energy Conversion and Management: X(中科院二区期刊，EI国际期刊), 2025: 101206.

【作者信息】

第一作者：陈伟，教授、博士生导师，研究方向：供应链管理、技术创新管理

通讯作者：宋志春，博士研究生，研究方向：能源技术创新

【基金支持】

国家社科基金项目(批准号：23BGL063)：数字经济时代国家创新体系的整体效能测度与优化策略研究。

【论文摘要】

Accelerating the energy transition (ET) is essential for achieving climate goals, yet the effectiveness of combining multiple policy instruments remains uncertain. This study investigates the synergistic effects of China’s New Energy Demonstration Cities (incentive policy) and Key Air Pollution Control Zones (regulatory policy) on urban ET from 2011 to 2021. A multidimensional ET index is constructed under the “energy trilemma” framework, and a double machine learning approach is employed to identify causal impacts and mediating mechanisms. The results show that: (1) policy synergy significantly promotes ET, but its marginal effect is lower than that of the incentive policy alone, failing to achieve the expected “1 + 1 > 2” outcome; (2) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the synergy effect is more pronounced in cities with stronger economic foundations, higher fiscal decentralization, non-resource dependency, and non-old industrial base status, highlighting the role of local institutional carrying capacity; (3) Mechanism analysis further indicates that synergy promotes ET mainly through industrial upgrading, green finance, and public environmental awareness, but all pathways suffer from transmission attenuation. These findings underscore the challenges of fragmented governance in multi-policy environments and suggest that effective energy transition requires stronger institutional integration, clearer policy signals, and enhanced local implementation capacity.